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¹ 1 ÍÀÓ×ÍÛÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÃÅÎÃÐÀÔÈß È ÏÐÈÐÎÄÍÛÅ ÐÅÑÓÐÑÛ http://www.izdatgeo.ru 2006 ÌÅÒÎÄÈÊÀ ÍÀÓ×ÍÛÕ ÈÑÑËÅÄÎÂÀÍÈÉ ÓÄÊ 504.054 Â. Í. ÁÀØÊÈÍ ÁÈÎÃÅÎÕÈÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÅ ÎÑÍÎÂÛ ÐÀÑ×ÅÒÀ ÊÐÈÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÕ ÍÀÃÐÓÇÎÊ ÊÈÑËÎÒÍÎÑÒÈ ÍÀ ÝÊÎÑÈÑÒÅÌÛ ÅÂÐÀÇÈÈ Äëÿ îöåíêè âîçäåéñòâèÿ òðàíñãðàíè÷íîãî çàãðÿçíåíèÿ âîçäóõà íà òåððèòîðèè Ñåâåðíîé Åâðàçèè ïðåäëîæåí ñïîñîá ðàñ÷åòà êðèòè÷åñêèõ íàãðóçîê. Îí áàçèðóåòñÿ íà àíàëèçå áèîãåîõèìè÷åñêîé ñòðóêòóðû ïðèðîäíûõ ýêîñèñòåì ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì ñïåöèàëüíî ðàçðàáîòàííûõ è àäàïòèðîâàííûõ ìåòîäèê ðàñ÷åòîâ âåëè÷èí êðèòè÷åñêèõ íàãðóçîê îòäåëüíûõ çàãðÿçíÿþùèõ âåùåñòâ. Ðàñ÷åòû è ïîñëåäóþùåå êàðòîãðàôèðîâàíèå âåëè÷èí êðèòè÷åñêèõ íàãðóçîê ïîëëþòàíòîâ è èõ ïðåâûøåíèé âûïîëíÿþòñÿ ñ ïðèìåíåíèåì êîìïüþòåðíîé ìîäåëè, â êîòîðóþ ìîãóò áûòü âêëþ÷åíû ðåçóëüòàòû íàòóðíûõ ìîíèòîðèíãîâûõ èññëåäîâàíèé, ëèòåðàòóðíûå äàííûå è èíôîðìàöèÿ, ïîëó÷åííàÿ íà îñíîâå ýêñïåðòíûõ îöåíîê, à òàêæå ýëåêòðîííûõ áàç äàííûõ. For assessing the impact of transboundary air pollution over the territory of northern Eurasia, a technique is suggested for calculating critical loads. It is based on analyzing the biogeochemical structure of natural ecosystems with the use of specifically developed and adapted techniques for calculating the values of critical loads of separate pollutants. Calculations and subsequent mapping of the values of critical loads of pollutants and their exceeding values are performed using a computer model which can incorporate results from monitoring field investigations, published data, and information obtained on the basis of expert assessments, as well as from electronic databases. Îñîçíàíèå ýòîé ïðîáëåìû íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì óðîâíå â ñåðåäèíå 1970-õ ãã. ïðèâåëî ê ðîñòó èññëåäîâàíèé ïî îöåíêå âîçäåéñòâèÿ àòìîòåõíîãåííûõ çàãðÿçíÿþùèõ âåùåñòâ (ÇÂ) íà ðàçëè÷íûå íàçåìíûå è ïðåñíîâîäíûå ýêîñèñòåìû. Èõ ðåçóëüòàòû èñïîëüçîâàíû ïðè ïîäïèñàíèè â 1979 ã. Êîíâåíöèè ïî çàãðÿçíåíèþ âîçäóõà íà áîëüøèå ðàññòîÿíèÿ (ÊÇÂÁÐ) â Æåíåâå 32 åâðîïåéñêèìè ñòðàíàìè, ÑØÀ è Êàíàäîé. Îäíàêî â ïåðâîíà÷àëüíîì âàðèàíòå ñîãëàñîâàííîå ñîêðàùåíèå ýìèññèè Ç íå áûëî îñíîâàíî íà ñòðîãèõ íàó÷íûõ îöåíêàõ ÷óâñòâèòåëüíîñòè ðàçëè÷íûõ ýêîñèñòåì ðàçíûõ ñòðàí ê âûáðàñûâàåìûì çàãðÿçíÿþùèì ñîåäèíåíèÿì. Èõ ïðè ýòîì íàèáîëåå âàæíû ðåãèîíàëüíûå îöåíêè ÊÍ äëÿ îïòèìèçàöèè ñòðàòåãèè ñîêðàùåíèÿ ýìèññèé ÇÂ, âêëþ÷àÿ ñîåäèíåíèÿ ñåðû è àçîòà.  1988 ã. ïîÿâèëàñü íîâàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ êðèòè÷åñêèõ íàãðóçîê (ÊÍ) ñ öåëüþ îïòèìèçàöèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ñòîèìîñòè ñîêðàùåíèÿ âûáðîñîâ è ýêîëîãè÷åñêîãî ýôôåêòà. Ðàçðàáîòàíà òàêæå êîíöåïöèÿ ÊÍ ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì áèîãåîõèìè÷åñêèõ ïðèíöèïîâ, îñíîâàííàÿ íà îïðåäåëåíèè óðîâíåé âûïàäåíèé àòìîòåõíîãåííûõ ÇÂ, ïðè êîòîðûõ âîçíèêàþò íåîáðàòèìûå èçìåíåíèÿ â ñòðóêòóðå è ôóíêöèÿõ ýêîñèñòåì [6]. Îäíàêî â ïåðâîíà÷àëüíîì âàðèàíòå ñîãëàñîâàííîå ñîêðàùåíèå ýìèññèè Ç íå áûëî îñíîâàíî íà ñòðîãèõ íàó÷íûõ îöåíêàõ ÷óâñòâèòåëüíîñòè ðàçëè÷íûõ ýêîñèñòåì ðàçíûõ ñòðàí ê âûáðàñûâàåìûì çàãðÿçíÿþùèì ñîåäèíåíèÿì. Èõ ïðè ýòîì íàèáîëåå âàæíû ðåãèîíàëüíûå îöåíêè ÊÍ äëÿ îïòèìèçàöèè ñòðàòåãèè ñîêðàùåíèÿ ýìèññèé ÇÂ, âêëþ÷àÿ ñîåäèíåíèÿ ñåðû è àçîòà.  1988 ã. ïîÿâèëàñü íîâàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ êðèòè÷åñêèõ íàãðóçîê (ÊÍ) ñ öåëüþ îïòèìèçàöèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ñòîèìîñòè ñîêðàùåíèÿ âûáðîñîâ è ýêîëîãè÷åñêîãî ýôôåêòà. Ðàçðàáîòàíà òàêæå êîíöåïöèÿ ÊÍ ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì áèîãåîõèìè÷åñêèõ ïðèíöèïîâ, îñíîâàííàÿ íà îïðåäåëåíèè óðîâíåé âûïàäåíèé àòìîòåõíîãåííûõ ÇÂ, ïðè êîòîðûõ âîçíèêàþò íåîáðàòèìûå èçìåíåíèÿ â ñòðóêòóðå è ôóíêöèÿõ ýêîñèñòåì [6]. Îäíàêî â ïåðâîíà÷àëüíîì âàðèàíòå ñîãëàñîâàííîå ñîêðàùåíèå ýìèññèè Ç íå áûëî îñíîâàíî íà ñòðîãèõ íàó÷íûõ îöåíêàõ ÷óâñòâèòåëüíîñòè ðàçëè÷íûõ ýêîñèñòåì ðàçíûõ ñòðàí ê âûáðàñûâàåìûì çàãðÿçíÿþùèì ñîåäèíåíèÿì. Èõ ïðè ýòîì íàèáîëåå âàæíû ðåãèîíàëüíûå îöåíêè ÊÍ äëÿ îïòèìèçàöèè ñòðàòåãèè ñîêðàùåíèÿ ýìèññèé ÇÂ, âêëþ÷àÿ ñîåäèíåíèÿ ñåðû è àçîòà. Ключевые слова: critical, loads, values, calculating, pollutants, izdatgeo, assessing, impact, transboundary, air, pollution, territory, northern, eurasia, technique, suggested, based, analyzing, biogeochemical, structure, natural, ecosystems, developed, adapted, techniques, separate, calculations, subsequent, mapping, exceeding