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This page intentionally left blank Climate Changes During the Holocene and Their Impact on Hydrological Systems It is now widely accepted that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are affecting the Earth’s radiation balance, resulting in higher global atmospheric temperatures. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about the likely effects of such a temperature rise on climate, and even more about the impacts of climate change and variability on the world’s hydrological regimes and socio-economic systems. Studying the effects of climate variability in the past can give clues regarding possible future effects. This volume provides a comprehensive review of the effects of climate variability on hydrological and human systems in the Holocene (approximately the last 10,000 years of pre-history and history), in various parts of the world. The book concentrates on the regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea to the east and north, the western and central parts of Europe, China, Japan, west and south Africa and the southwestern USA. The main conclusion is that global warming will bring about a decrease in precipitation in the regions dominated by the westerlies (Mediterranean climates) and an increase in precipitation in the monsoon (sub-tropical and tropical climates) regions. Climate Changes During the Holocene and Their Impact on Hydrological Systems will be of value to researchers and professionals in hydrology, climatology, geology and historical geography. Arie S. Issar received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in geology at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. From 1961 to 1964, he was an advisor to the Government of Iran in the field of groundwater, research and development, under the auspices of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). From 1965 to 1974 he was Head of the Hydrogeological Division of the Geological Survey of Israel. In 1975, he founded and later led the Water Resources Research Center of the Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, and became a Professor of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, where he was holder of the Alain Poher Chair in the Hydrogeology of Arid Zones. Professor Issar has published over a hundred papers in scientific journals concerning hydrogeology and hydrochemistry of arid zones, the water problems of the Middle East, as well as the impact of climate change on hydrology and socio-economic systems. He has authored or co-authored several books, including: Groundwater Recharge: A Guide to Understanding and Estimating Natural Recharge (1990; Lerner, D. N., Issar, A. S., Simmers, I. IAH & Verlag Heinz Heise). Water Shall Flow from the Rock: Hydrogeology and Climate in the Lands of the Bible (1990; Springer-Verlag) Runoff, Infiltration and Subsurface Flow of Water in Arid and Semi-arid Regions (1996; Edited by A. S. Issar and S. D. Resnick; Kluwer Academic Publishers). Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources (1996; edited by A. N. Angelakis and A. S. Issar, NATO ASI Series, Springer-Verlag) Water, Environment and Society in Times of Climate Change (1998; edited by A. S. Issar and N. Brown; Kluwer Academic Publishers). International Hydrology Series The International Hydrological Programme (IHP) was established by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) in 1975 as the successor to the International Hydrological Decade. The long-term goal of the IHP is to advance our understanding of processes occurring in the water cycle and to integrate this knowledge into water resources management. The IHP is the only UN science and educational programme in the field of water resources, and one of its outputs has been a steady stream of technical and information documents aimed at water specialists and decision-makers. The International Hydrology Series has been developed by the IHP in collaboration with Cambridge University Press as a major collection of research monographs, synthesis volumes and graduate texts on the subject of water. Authoritative and international in scope, the various books within the Series all contribute to the aims of the IHP in improving scientific and technical knowledge of fresh water processes, in providing research know-how and in stimulating the responsible management of water resources. Editorial Advisory Board: Secretary to the Advisory Board: Dr. Michael Bonell Division of Water Sciences, UNESCO, 1 Rue Miollis, Paris 75732, France Members of the Advisory Board: Professor B. P. F. Braga Jr. Centro Tecnológico de Hidráulica, São Paulo, Brazil Professor G. Dagan Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv University, Israel Dr. J. Khouri Water Resources Division, Arab Centre for Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Damascus, Syria Dr. G. Leavesley U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, Denver Federal Center, Colorado, USA Dr. E. Morris British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom Professor L. Oyebande Department of Geography and Planning, University of Lagos, Nigeria Professor S. Sorooshian College of Engineering and Mines, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA Professor K. Takeuchi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yamanashi University, Japan Professor D. E. Walling Department of Geography, University of Exeter, United Kingdom Dr. I. White CSIRO Division of Environmental Mechanics, Canberra, Australia Titles in Print in the Series: M. Bonell, M. M. Hufschmidt and J. S. Gladwell Hydrology and Water Management in the Humid Tropics: Hydrological Research Issues and Strategies for Water Management Z. W. Kundzewicz New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology R. A. Feddes Space and Time Scale Variability and Interdependencies in the Various Hydrological Processes J. Gibert, J. Mathieu and F. Fournier Groundwater and Surface Water Ecotones: Biological and Hydrological Interactions and Management Options G. Dagan and S. Neuman Subsurface Flow and Transport: A Stochastic Approach D. P. Loucks and J. S. Gladwell Sustainability Criteria for Water Resource Systems J. C. van Dam Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydrological Regimes J. J. Bogardi and Z. W. Kundzewicz Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty and Robustness of Water Resources Systems G. Kaser and H. Osmaston Tropical Glaciers I. A. Shiklomanov World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century A. S. Issar Climate Changes During the Holocene and Their Impact on Hydrological Systems International Hydrology Series Climate Changes During the Holocene and Their Impact on Hydrological Systems Arie S. Issar The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge United Kingdom Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org 978-0-521-81726-4 © UNESCO 2003 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2003 To Margalit with love Contents List of Figures and Tables Preface Acknowledgements 1 Climate Changes in the Levant During the Late Quaternary Period 1.1 Contemporary climate 1.2 The climate during the Late Pleistocene 1.3 Climate changes during the Holocene in the Levant 1.4 Correlation between climate changes and historical events in the Levant 1.4.1 The Neolithic period, c. 10 ka to c. 7 ka BP 1.4.2 The Lower Neolithic period, c. 10 ka to 8 ka BP (Pre-pottery Neolithic) 1.4.3 The Middle and Upper Neolithic period, c. 8 ka to c. 7 ka BP (Pottery Neolithic) 1.4.4 The Chalcolithic period, c. 7 ka to c. 5 ka BP 1.4.5 The Early Bronze Age c. 5 ka to c. 4 ka BP 1.4.6 The Middle Bronze Age c. 4 ka to 3.5 ka BP 1.4.7 The Late Bronze Age and Iron Age, 3.5 ka to 2.6 ka BP 1.4.8 The Roman–Byzantine period (2.3 2.2 ka to 1.3 ka BP), including the Roman–Byzantine transition period (1.7 ka to 1.6 ka BP) 1.4.9 The Moslem–Arab period, c. 1.3 ka to 1.0 ka BP 1.4.10 The Crusader period and Little Ice Age, 1.0 ka to 0.4 ka BP 1.4.11 The Moslem–Ottoman period, 0.4 ka to 0.1 ka BP 1.4.12 The Industrial period, 0.1 ka BP to the present 2 Climate Changes During the Holocene Epoch in Europe 2.1 Contemporary climate 2.1.1 The Pleistocene–Holocene transition period 2.1.2 The Mediterranean region 2.1.3 The Balkan peninsula 2.1.4 The Italian peninsula and the French Mediterranean coast 2.1.5 The island of Malta 2.1.6 The Iberian peninsula 3 Climate Changes During the Holocene in East Asia (China, Korea and Japan) 3.1 China 3.1.1 Contemporary climate 3.1.2 Climate changes during the Upper Pleistocene Ключевые слова: caused, humid, southern, global, archaeological, noahs flood, sahelian zone, mount carmel, organic material, mm, region, iglesiaz lopez, vice versa, data, rapid climatic, lake level, iberian peninsula, climatic change, judean mountain, based, interrupted, historical timetable, levant, chang jiang, coastal, tienshan mountain, bp wa, moslem regime, xizhang plateau, italian peninsula, mb wa, van zeist, sea, science, impact, rainfall, bp, city, clastic material, climatic, scientic discoveries, upper, solar activity, hunan province, climate change, africa, land, dordrecht, ancient periods, domesticated animal, desert, level, higher, warm, tidal inlet, historical events, site, pleistocene, university, study, ad, evidence, ka ka, ice sheet, mid-holocene climatic, ?rst, age, precipitation, swiss plateau, japan, east, barrier ridge, north, international, south, ka, paleo, uorescent band, general, hebrew mazar, holocene, classical greek, human intervention, issar, hydrological systems, forest, tibetan plateau, wang yunzhang, white mountains, environmental isotope, liu tungsheng, water, qinghai-xizang plateau, century, dark age, steppe condition, central, mount sodom, yao hui, bc, summer, historical literature, jet stream, ka ka bp, qualitative aspect, archaeology, winter, basin, mass balance, israel, xiangding, humic acid, environment, ka bp, area, press, van leeuwen, sea level, fang jin-qix, negev, sierra nevada, van staalduinen, plant husbandry, ice, iron oxide, china, hebrew, quaternary, sahara, wa, phase, change, northern, nansen fjord, guangzhou plain, arid, dry, uvial activity, coastal plain, mb ii, pteropoda assemblage, acadian empire, air mass, series, arabian peninsula, iron age, volcanic activity, human interference, zone, natural hazard, layer, ecological aspect, vegetation, ethiopian highland, high, van, historical documentation, river, eastern, late, nature, eolian material, london, cold, references, temperature, american schools, western, balkan peninsula, simultaneously, climatic parameter, eb ii, period, increase, agudo garrido, middle, pollen, warmly acknowledged, red rains, inter-tidal zone, climate, rise, early, american, lake, planktonic foraminifer, solar radiation, zhang peiyuan, ?uctuations, british isles, tree, europe, core, pretoria saltpan, year, occurred, rain, coastal barrier, yuan yu-jiang, record, time, history, eb iv, sediment, zhang deer, ice cap, settlement, shi peijun, mediterranean, journal, glacial, shi yafeng, san rafael, condition, curve, deposit, stage, nile, close proximity