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This page intentionally left blank CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY The past few decades have brought extreme weather and climate events to the forefront of societal concerns. Ordinary citizens, industry, and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic impacts. Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors. The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond and adapt to climate variability, regardless of its source. It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society – how these extremes have varied in the past, and how they might change in the future – and of the types of effort that will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes. This review volume is divided into two sections: one examining the evidence for recent and projected changes in extremes of weather and climate events, and the other assessing the impacts of these events on society and on the insurance industry. Chapters examine a variety of climatic extremes using both the analysis of observational data and climate model simulations. Other chapters highlight recent innovative efforts to develop institutional mechanisms and incentives for integrating knowledge on extremes and their economic impacts. The book will appeal to all scientists, engineers, and policymakers who have an interest in the effects of climate extremes on society. DR HENRY F. DIAZ is a Research Meteorologist in the Earth System Research Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He has worked on a variety of climate issues at NOAA over the past 15 years, particularly the impact of climatic variation on water resources of the western United States. He is recognized as an expert on the EI Nin? o – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and coedited EI Nin? o: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, also published by Cambridge University Press (1992). DR RICHARD MURNANE is the Program Manager for the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) and a Senior Research Scientist at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), where he leads RPI’s efforts to transform science into knowledge for assessing risk from natural hazards. Dr Murnane’s own research focuses on tropical cyclones, climate variability, and the global carbon cycle. Before joining the RPI and BIOS in 1997, Dr Murnane was on the research staff of Princeton University in the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY Edited by HENRY F. DIAZ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, USA RICHARD J. MURNANE Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, USA CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge New York Melbourne Madrid Cape Town Singapore São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org 9780521870283 © Cambridge University Press 2008 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2008 ISBN-13 978-0-511-39847-6 ISBN-13 978-0-521-87028-3 eBook (EBL) hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Contents List of contributors Foreword Roger S. Pulwarty Preface The significance of weather and climate extremes to society: an introduction Henry F. Diaz and Richard J. Murnane page vii xi xiii 1 I Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes 9 1 Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events David B. Stephenson 11 2 Observed changes in the global distribution of daily temperature and precipitation extremes David R. Easterling 24 3 The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes Harold E. Brooks and Nikolai Dotzek 35 4 Regional storm climate and related marine hazards in the Northeast Atlantic Hans von Storch and Ralf Weisse 54 5 Extensive summer hot and cold extremes under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and North America Alexander Gershunov and Herve? Douville 74 6 Beyond mean climate change: what climate models tell us about future climate extremes Claudia Tebaldi and Gerald A. Meehl 99 7 Tropical cyclones and climate change: revisiting recent studies at GFDL Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya 120 II Impacts of weather and climate extremes 145 8 Extreme climatic events and their impacts: examples from the Swiss Alps Martin Beniston 147 9 The impact of weather and climate extremes on coral growth M. James C. Crabbe, Emma L. L. Walker, and David B. Stephenson 165 10 Forecasting US insured hurricane losses Thomas H. Jagger, James B. Elsner, and Mark A. Saunders 189 11 Integrating hurricane loss models with climate models Charles C. Watson, Jr., and Mark E. Johnson 209 12 An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses Stuart Miller, Robert Muir-Wood, and Auguste Boissonnade 225 13 An overview of the impact of climate change on the insurance industry Andrew Dlugolecki 248 14 Toward a comprehensive loss inventory of weather and climate hazards Susan L. Cutter, Melanie Gall, and Christopher T. Emrich 279 15 The catastrophe modeling response to Hurricane Katrina Robert Muir-Wood and Patricia Grossi 296 16 The Risk Prediction Initiative: a successful science–business partnership for analyzing natural hazard risk Richard J. Murnane and Anthony Knap 320 Index The colored plates will be found between pages 144 and 145. Contributors M. Beniston Climate Research, University of Geneva, Switzerland A. Boissonnade Risk Management Solutions (RMS), USA H. Brooks NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, USA M. J. C. Crabbe Luton Institute of Research in the Applied Natural Sciences, UK S. L. Cutter Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, USA H. F. Diaz NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, USA A. Dlugolecki 17 Craigie Place, Perth, Scotland, UK N. Dotzek DLR-IPA, Germany H. Douville Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, France D. R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center, USA J. B. Elsner Department of Geography, Florida State University, USA C. T. Emrich Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, USA M. Gall Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, USA A. Gershunov Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA P. Grossi Risk Management Solutions (RMS), USA T. H. Jagger Department of Geography, Florida State University, USA M. E. Johnson Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Central Florida, USA List of contributors A. Knap Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Bermuda T. R. Knutson Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, USA G. A. Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA S. Miller Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics, UK R. Muir-Wood Risk Management Solutions (RMS), USA R. J. Murnane RPI BIOS, USA M. A. Saunders Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, UK D. B. Stephenson Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK H. von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, Germany C. Tebaldi National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA R. E. Tuleya Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, USA E. L. L. Walker Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK C. C. Watson Kinetic Analysis Corporation, USA R. 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