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"Remaining global resource base is healthy, says IHS report on petroleum trends. IHS Energy's Report on Petroleum Trends (1994-2003), an edited version of which appears here, provides a corrective to the doomsters on future world oil and gas supply and demand and offers a view of the underlying fundamentals driving the price of a barrel of oil over $50. In terms of long-term remaining resources in the ground, IHS believes that the global resource base for hydrocarbons is still healthy. It will be aided by growth in exploration investment now underway. While an energy demand crunch exists at present, certain factors—particularly geopolitical rather than geological—are contributing to this crunch and resulting price increases experienced recently. Long-term analysis provides a more positive outlook than current price environment suggests: oil reached a new peak in production during 2003; gas pushed past the 100 trillion cubic feet (tcf) level for the first time ever. Additionally, several major projects are due to come onstream, suggesting no obvious shortfalls in oil production through 2008. Total global resource discoveries in 2003 appear better than in 2002. Forty-six major discoveries (100 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater) were made worldwide during 2003, an increase of five over 2002. Over the period 1995-2003, total resource additions significantly exceeded global liquids production for the same period. Major discoveries are widely distributed geographically; 51 countries contributed one or more discoveries of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater during 1994-2003. A focus on coal-bed methane, heavy oil and natural gas liquids is adding to growth in reserves supply. International exploration success declined from the record high of 45 successful wildcats in 2002, disrupting an upward trend seen over the decade. However, this factor will increase as discoveries are gradually reported from currently classed tight wells. The North American new-field wildcat success rate reached a record high of 45% in 2003, significantly higher than the previous peak of 39% in 2001, partly aided by coal-bed methane drilling. Deepwater played an increasingly dominant role over the past decade with a record 70% of all discoveries made in water depths over 200 m and 65% occurring in waters deeper than 1000 m. Significant investments in deepwater E&P technologies by major international operators fueled growth in reserves and production, which were inaccessible and uneconomic at the beginning of the period. Remaining resources: Total worldwide liquids resources discovered through end-2003 amounted to 2285 billion barrels with cumulative production of 1020 billion barrels. The remaining resources of 1265 billion barrels imply global liquids depletion of 44.6% at end-2003. Worldwide gas resources discovered through end-2003 amounted to 9725 tcf. By end-2003, 2910 tcf of natural gas had been produced, just below..." Overall production levels: Liquids World liquids production (including condensate, natural gas liquids, oil sands and Orimulsion production, but excluding processing gains from refineries) reached another peak in 2003. According to IHS Energy's estimates, daily liquids production in 2003 averaged 75.5 million barrels, an increase of 3.2% from 2002 and 1.4% higher than the previous peak in 2001. Non-OPEC liquids production reached a new peak at 45.7 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase of 1.9% over 2002 (Figure 1). OPEC country production accounted for 39.5% of the global liquids total, higher than the 38.8% achieved in 2002. Nevertheless, the 2003 OPEC share was lower than the period from 1993 to 2001, throughout which OPEC share exceeded 40%, and remains well below the OPEC countries' production share in the 1970s when they regularly produced more than 50% of the world's liquids. At 29.9 million b/d of all liquids, OPEC country production was still well short of the record production of 31 million b/d achieved in 2000. Compared with 2002, the most dramatic regional increase came from the Former Soviet Union (+13.0%) on the back of a 14.6% increase in Russian production. Production from Saharan Africa rose by 8%, largely as a result of increased OPEC country production. Middle East production growth of 7.7% is also attributable to OPEC increases. The increase might have been greater but for cutbacks in production in Iraq following the second Gulf war. Production from North America rose slightly, natural field declines being offset by a 140,000 b/d increase in production from Canadian oil sands. Non-conventional liquids production from Canadian oil sands and Venezuela's Orinoco is estimated to have grown by 11% in 2003 to 1.28 million b/d, representing 1.7% of world production. By contrast, four regions produced less in 2003 than in 2002. Although production declined in both Argentina and Colombia, the major decrease in Latin America came from Venezuela, as a result of political unrest. Gas: In 2003, natural gas production exceeded 100 tcf for the first time. Global gas production showed an increase of 3.4% above 2002. Gas production grew in all regions except North America, which saw a minor decline of less than 0.2%, a slight increase in US production being insufficient to offset the decline in production from Canada. The greatest regional increase (23%) came from Sub-Saharan Africa where Nigerian production was boosted by full-year production from Nigeria LNG train 3, which had come online in November 2002. Similarly, in Latin America, the 6% increase in production was largely attributable to the first full year of production from Trinidad's Atlantic LNG train 2 and the start-up of train 3 in April 2003. Increased production from Qatar and Saudi Arabia contributed significantly to a 13.8% increase in natural gas production from the Middle East. Major discoveries: In terms of resource discoveries, 2003 appears to have been a better year than its immediate predecessor. A total of 46 major discoveries (100 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater) were made during the year, five more than in 2002. The largest discovery, Iran's giant Lavan gas-condensate find, was made in a Paleozoic reservoir beneath Lavan (Sheykh Shoeyb) Island. Lavans recoverable gas resources are estimated at more than 6 tcf. Although Lavan was the only billion barrels of oil equivalent discovery made in 2003, eight other giant discoveries in excess of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent were made, three in Brazil and one each in Angola, China, Malaysia, Sudan and Vietnam. The Chinese and Vietnamese discoveries were of gas-condensate; the remaining six were oil-dominant. In all, the 46 major discoveries accounted for more than 9.5 billion barrels of liquids and almost 24 tcf of gas. This exceeds the 2002 total from major discoveries by some 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Deepwater dominates: Perhaps the most notable feature of the major 2003 discoveries was the dominance of deep-water success, with a record 70% of all major discoveries being made in water depths greater than 200 m and 65% occurring in waters deeper than 1000 m. This was also reflected in the distribution of resources, with 64% of all resources located in deepwater, the first time deepwater has accounted for more than 60% of the resources of 100 million+ barrels of oil equivalent finds (Figure 2). The major discoveries of the past decade have a wide geographic distribution. A total of 51 countries contributed one or more discoveries of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater, with 13 countries accounting for gross resources in excess of 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent." 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