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This page intentionally left blank Global Warming: The Complete Briefing Third Edition Sir John Houghton Cambridge University Press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Preface to the First Edition Preface to the Second Edition Preface to the Third Edition 1 Global Warming and Climate Change Is the climate changing? The remarkable last decades of the twentieth century El Niño events The effect of volcanic eruptions on temperature extremes Vulnerable to change The problem of global warming Adaptation and mitigation Uncertainty and response Questions Notes 2 The Greenhouse Effect How the Earth keeps warm The greenhouse effect Mars and Venus The ‘runaway’ greenhouse effect The enhanced greenhouse effect Questions Notes 3 The Greenhouse Gases Which are the most important greenhouse gases? Radiative forcing 4 Climates of the Past The last hundred years The last thousand years The past million years How stable has past climate been? Questions Notes 5 Modelling the Climate Modelling the weather Seasonal forecasting The climate system Feedbacks in the climate system Models for climate prediction Validation of the model Comparison with observations Is the climate chaotic? Regional climate modelling The future of climate modelling Questions Notes 6 Climate Change in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond Emission scenarios Model projections Projections of global average temperature Regional patterns of climate change Changes in climate extremes Regional climate models Longer-term climate change Changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation Ключевые слова: global, special report, variation, cambridge, north america, region, ocean, loss, cubic kilometre, southeast asia, technical innovation, scenario, university press, continued, fair isle, global warming, atmospheric counterpart, social dimensions, contribution, tropical cyclone, problem, rate, houghton, notes, industrial revolution, sea, science, impact, stable, downing street, renewable, resource, surface, climate change, main driver, thermohaline circulation, working group, milankovitch theory, land, minor gas, greenhouse gas, instance, bakerian lecture, british petroleum, watson, life, level, sea level, main feature, earths climate, sun, mauna loa, university, runaway greenhouse, outgoing radiation, integrated assessment, plenary meeting, atmospheric, study, ?rst, event, earths orbit, scientic outlook, gaseous fuel, natural capital, emission, forcing, weather, increased, meira filho, action, thomas huxley, earth, acid rain, sulphur dioxide, forest, radiation, northern hemisphere, large, water, connective environmental, century, fossil fuel, le, power station, activity, technology, process, southern hemisphere, carbon dioxide, range, cloud, global regional, salty, country, solar, scientic theory, meteorological organization, traditional biomass, carbon, soya bean, -value uninsulated, environment, area, box, press, hydrological cycle, cost, working groups, nuclear power, atmospheric circulation, mount pinatubo, table, ice, development, wa, shukla, electricity, change, term, cent, thickness, economic grouping, uncertainty, result, detailed regulation, milankovitch forcing, fourth power, ha, report, feedback, assessment, nino, climate anomaly, national oceanic, fuel, global village, electrical power, solar cell, montreal protocol, atmosphere, intergovernmental panel, volcanic activity, concentration, sustainable manner, greenhouse effect, reduction, scienti?c, chapter, heat, fossil, atmospheric density, worlds leader, warming, gas, growth, london, nature, solubility pump, regional, marked, source, broad feature, real options, framework convention, peruvian farmer, temperature, regular cycle, average, standard deviation, biological pump, period, increase, earths crust, gigatonnes, solar panel, climate, model, rise, natural, economic, small, small hydro, higher prominence, obvious feature, sacramento basin, environmental, british isles, coastal zone, greenhouse, year, national academy, future, factor, time, concerned, environmental refugee, cambridge university, insulating layer, solar wall, ipcc, estimate, nitrous oxide, supplementary report, human, dioxide, energy