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Climate Change and Economic Development SEA Regional Modelling and Analysis Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam © Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam 2007 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 13: 978–0–230–54279–2 hardback ISBN 10: 0–230–54279–4 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne For Grace and Max Contents List of Tables List of Figures Acknowledgement and Sources of Some Materials Summary and Preface Foreword List of Abbreviations xiii xv xvii xix xxi xxiii Chapter 1 Introduction: Issues and Developments in Climate Change 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 A brief review of the science and history of climate change 2 1.2.1 The discovery of the greenhouse effect 2 1.2.2 The international response to climate change 3 1.2.3 The outcome from Kyoto 6 1.3 The economics of climate change 10 1.3.1 Problems presented by climate change for economics 11 1.4 Climate change policy options: mitigation and adaptation 12 1.4.1 Mitigation and adaptation: definitions and contrasts 12 1.4.2 Reasons for the relative paucity of climate change adaptation research 13 1.5 Objectives of this book 15 1.6 Contributions of this book 16 1.7 The structure of this book 17 Chapter 2 Issues in Climate Change for South East Asia 21 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 South East Asia 22 2.2.1 Recent economic and social development in South East Asia 23 2.2.2 Recent economic reform and growth 25 2.2.3 The environment as an issue in South East Asia 26 2.2.3.1 South East Asia’s activities in international environmental law 28 2.2.4 Climate change activities in South East Asia 29 2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions of South East Asia 36 2.3.1 The contribution of deforestation to climate change 36 2.3.2 Energy use in South East Asia as a contributor to climate change 37 2.3.3 Overall structure of emissions 37 2.3.4 South East Asia’s place in the global greenhouse 38 2.3.5 Economic development and climate change emissions 40 2.4 Conclusion 44 Chapter 3 Climate Change Impact Estimates for South East Asia 47 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 Aggregate climate change impact estimation methods and results 47 3.2.1 The methodology 47 3.2.2 Other aggregate impact estimates 49 3.3 The likely impacts of climate change on South East Asia 52 3.4 Sectoral climate change impact estimates for South East Asia 54 3.4.1 Sea level rise 54 3.4.1.1 Sea level rise studies for South East Asia 55 3.4.1.2 An impact estimate for sea level rise for South East Asia 56 3.4.2 Agriculture 57 3.4.2.1 An impact estimate for agriculture in South East Asia 60 3.4.3 Impacts of climate change on health 60 3.4.4 Human settlements and ecosystems 61 3.4.4.1 Human settlement 61 3.4.4.2 Ecosystem loss 62 3.4.5 Vulnerability to natural disasters References Pielke, R.A. 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