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This page intentionally left blank The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change A Guide to the Debate Why is the debate over climate change so confusing? Some say that there is clear evidence of an impending crisis, others that the evidence for climate change is weak. Some say that efforts to curb greenhouse gases will bankrupt us, others that we can solve the problem at manageable cost. In these arguments, both sides cannot be right. Reports in the media perpetuate the conflict: they invariably attempt to present both sides of the argument in a balanced manner. As a result, it is hard for non-specialists to sort out and evaluate the contending claims. In this accessible primer, Dessler and Parson combine their expertise in atmospheric science and public policy to help scientists, policy makers, and the public sort through the conflicting claims in the climate-change debate. The authors explain how scientific and policy debates work, summarize present scientific knowledge and uncertainty about climate change, and discuss the available policy options. Along the way, they explain why the debate is so confusing. Anyone with an interest in how science is used in policy debates will find this discussion illuminating. The book requires no specialized knowledge but is accessible to any college-educated general reader who wants to make more sense of the climate-change debate. It can also be used as a textbook to explain the details of the climate-change debate, or as a resource for science students or working scientists, to explain how science is used in policy debates. Andrew E. Dessler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University Edward A. Parson Law School and School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan Cambridge New York Melbourne Madrid Cape Town Singapore São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org © Andrew E. Dessler and Edward A. Parson 2006 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2005 Contents Preface page vii 1 Global climate change: a new type of environmental problem 1 1.1 Background on climate and climate change 6 1.2 Background on climate-change policy 12 1.3 Plan of the book 16 2 Science, politics, and science in politics 18 2.1 Justifications for action: positive statements and normative statements 19 2.2 How science works 23 2.3 Politics and policy debates 34 2.4 When science and politics meet 38 2.5 Limiting the damage: the role of scientific assessments 41 Further reading for Chapter 2 45 3 Climate change: present scientific knowledge and uncertainties 47 3.1 Is the climate changing? 47 3.2 Are human activities responsible for global warming? 66 3.3 What future changes can we expect? Predicting climate change over the twenty-first century 76 3.4 What will the impacts of climate change be? 81 3.5 Conclusions 87 Further reading for Chapter 3 88 4 The climate-change policy debate: impacts and potential responses 90 4.1 Impacts and adaptation 91 4.2 Emissions and mitigation responses 96 4.3 Putting it together: balancing benefits and costs of mitigation and adaptation 117 4.4 A third class of response: geoengineering 123 4.5 Conclusion: policy choices under uncertainty 124 Further reading for Chapter 4 125 5 The present impasse and steps forward 128 5.1 Climate-change politics: present positions 128 5.2 Climate-change politics: the arguments against action 131 5.3 The present policy debate: use of scientific knowledge and uncertainty 135 5.4 So what should be done? Major choices and elements of an effective response 154 5.5 Conclusion 175 Further reading for Chapter 5 177 Appendix 180 Glossary 183 References 186 Index 189 Ключевые слова: group, global, provide, british columbia, environmental policy, claim, special report, tectonic process, decade, variation, region, crop productivity, global participation, political debate, trend, percent, nation, politics, global-scale process, ocean, data, major eruption, scenario, natural resources, pan cambridge, southern oscillation, national, projection, partisan distortion, scientific debate, white cambridge, economic growth, ice shelf, problem, major, science, impact, infrared radiation, global climate, scientific, economic output, global equity, surface, climate change, limit, isotopic measurement, political, response, foreign policy, legal baseline, greenhouse gas, meteorological condition, religious belief, potential consequences, level, climate-change policy, greenhouse-gas emission, earths climate, elevated atmospheric, glacial ice, university, outgoing radiation, evidence, atmospheric, additional country, direct measurement, ice sheet, energy-related emission, adaptation, emission, non-scientific audience, type, mitigation, action, scientific arena, marker scenarios, earth, international, kyoto framework, ozone, view, developing, scientific dispute, debate, electromagnetic spectrum, optimal policy, large, ozone hole, risk, century, scientific knowledge, hockey stick, effort, international effort, le, activity, catastrophic change, process, plenary session, near-global participation, review, range, scientific caution, policy actor, policy debate, country, question, hypothesis, positive, carbon, national policy, press, international body, cost, reduce, working groups, national security, global-average temperature, ice-age condition, potential, scientific literature, ice, narrower participation, domestic policy, associate professor, electric utility, total, water vapor, target, wa, emission grew, change, doe, natural variability, oxygen atom, global ozone, term, private actor, suns brightness, uncertainty, result, heavy downpour, ha, assessment, people, report, decision, nino, permit, knowledge, scientist, climate-change, escape valve, prior belief, stratospheric ozone, aim, universal participation, atmosphere, intergovernmental panel, peer-reviewed literature, reduction, johnson cambridge, chapter, scale, making, suns output, tropical latitude, prevailing wind, warming, gas, growth, internal variability, measure, blood-type testing, source, policy, specific, temperature, sciences commission, average, international policy, political ideology, alternative specification, period, increase, work, argument, climate, model, nitrogen oxide, suddenly doubled, protocol, form, commitment, earths surface, incremental change, environmental, greenhouse, projected, year, national academy, future, record, time, european union, policy arena, gradual convergence, issue, ipcc, human, approach, climate-change debate, energy