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Reducing Climate Impacts in the Transportation Sector Daniel Sperling and James S. Cannon (Editors) Daniel Sperling University of California, Davis Institute of Transportation Studies Davis CA 95616 USA dsperling@ucdavis.edu James S. Cannon Energy Futures 1460 Riverside Ave. Boulder CO 80304 USA jscannon@energy-futures.com ISBN: 978-1-4020-6978-9 (PB) e-ISBN: 978-1-4020-6979-6 DOI 10.1007 978-1-4020-6979-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008931157 Springer Science?Business Media B.V. 2009 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper 987654321 springer.com Contents 1 Climate Change and Transportation Dan Sperling James Cannon and Nic Lutsey 2 Energy Security, Climate and Your Car: US Energy Policy and Beyond Amy Myers Jaffe 3 Transport Policy and Climate Change Jack Short Kurt Van Dender Philippe Crist 4 Factor of Two: Halving the Fuel Consumption of New U.S. Automobiles by 2035 Lynette Cheah Christopher Evans Anup Bandivadekar John Heywood 5 Lead Time, Customers, and Technology: Technology Opportunities and Limits on the Rate of Deployment John German 6 Heavy Duty Vehicle Fleet Technologies for Reducing Carbon Dioxide: An Industry Perspective Anthony Greszler 7 Beyond Congestion: Transportation’s Role in Managing VMT for Climate Outcomes David G. Burwell 8 CO2 Reduction Through Better Urban Design: Portland’s Story Eliot Rose Rex Burkholder 9 Transportation-Specific Challenges for Climate Policy Gustavo Collantes Kelly Sims Gallagher Preface and Acknowledgements Climate change has fully entered the public consciousness. Newspapers barrage readers with stories of shrinking glaciers, disappearing species, and cataclysmic weather. A documentary on climate change wins an Oscar, a Noble Peace Prize is awarded to scientists studying climate change, and arcane scientific debates become front page news. The reality of climate change and the imperative to do something is now widely accepted. But that is where the agreement largely ends. What to do and how fast to do it remains intensely controversial. Those questions about what to do about transportation to bring it in line with climate goals were the focus of a high level meeting in California in August 2007. Two hundred leaders and experts were assembled from the automotive and energy industries, start-up technology companies, public interest groups, academia, U.S. energy laboratories, and governments from around the world. Three broad strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions were investigated: reducing vehicle travel, improving vehicle efficiency, and reducing the carbon content of fuels. This book is an outgrowth of that conference. The conference was not a one-off event. It was the latest in a series of conferences held roughly every two years on some aspect of transportation and energy policy, always at the Asilomar Conference Center near Monterey on the California coast. The first conference in 1988 addressed alternative transportation fuels, the last two have focused on climate change. The full list appears below: I. Alternative Transportation Fuels in the ‘90s and Beyond (July 1988) II. Roads to Alternative Fuels (July 1990) III. Global Climate Change (August 1991) IV. Strategies for a Sustainable Transportation System (August 1993) V. Is Technology Enough? Sustainable Transportation-Energy Strategies (July 1995) VI. Policies for Fostering Sustainable Transportation Technologies (August 1997) VII. Transportation Energy and Environmental Policies into the 21st Century (August 1999) The chapters of this book evolved from presentations and discussions at the 11th Biennial Conference on Transportation and Energy Policy. The conference was hosted and organized by the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis (ITS-Davis) under the auspices of the United States National Research Council’s Transportation Research Board—in particular, the standing committees on Energy, Alternative Fuels, and Transportation and Sustainability. The conference would not have been possible without the generous support of the following organizations: William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Surdna Foundation, Energy Foundation, Neil C. Otto, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting, Natural Resources Canada, California Department of Transportation, California Energy Commission, California Air Resources Board, and the University of California Davis Sustainable Transportation Center. The editors also want to acknowledge the Corporate Affiliate Members of ITS-Davis that provide valuable support allowing the ITS the flexibility to initiate new activities and events such as the conference upon which this book is based. Those companies are Nissan, Toyota, Shell, ExxonMobil, Subaru, Pacific Gas & Electric, Mitsui PowerSystems, Chevron, Aramco Services Company, and Nippon Oil Corporation. The conference program was directed by Daniel Sperling along with David Burwell John DeCicco Carmen Difiglio Robert Dixon Duncan Eggar Lew Fulton John German David Greene Cornie Huizenga Roland Hwang Jack Johnston Robert Larson Alan Lloyd Marianne Mintz Peter Reilly-Roe Jonathan Rubin Mike Savonis Lee Schipper Christine Sloane and Steve Winkelman. This committee worked closely in crafting a set of speakers and topics that was engaging and insightful. Most of all, we want to acknowledge the many attendees of the conference listed in Appendix B. These invited leaders and experts, coming from many parts of the world and many segments of society, enriched the conference with their deep insights and rich experiences. California USA Colorado USA Contributors Anup Bandivadekar Sloan Automotive Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02139-4307 USA Rex Burkholder Metro 600 NE Grand Avenue Portland OR 97232 USA David G. Burwell BBG Group 7008 Rainswood ct Bethesda MD 20817 USA James S. Cannon Energy Futures Inc POB 4367 Boulder CO 80306 USA Lynette Cheah Sloan Automotive Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02139-4307 USA Gustavo Collantes John F Kennedy School of Government Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 79 John F Kennedy Street Cambridge MA 02138 USA Philippe Crist International Transport Forum OECD 2 rue Andre? Pascal 75775 Paris Cedex 16 France Mark A. Delucchi Institute of Transportation Studies University of California Davis UCD 2028 Academic Surge One Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 USA Christopher Evans Technology and Policy Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02139-4307 USA Carolyn Fischer Resources for the Future 1616 P St NW Washington DC 20036 USA Kelly Sims Gallagher John F Kennedy School of Government Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 79 John F Kennedy Street Cambridge MA 02138 USA John German American Honda Motor Company 3947 Research Park Drive Ann Arbor MI 48108 USA David L. Greene National Transportation Research Center ORNL 2360 Cherakala Boulevard Knoxville TN 37932 USA Anthony Greszler Volvo Powertrain Corp 10 Darthmouth Drive Hagerstown MD 21742 USA John Heywood MIT CTPID E40-227 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02139 USA Nic Lutsey Institute of Transportation Studies University of California Davis UCD 2028 Academic Surge One Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 USA Amy Myers Jaffe Rice University MS 40 6100 Main Street Houston TX 77005 USA Eliot Rose Metro 600 NE Grand Avenue Portland OR 97232 USA Jack Short International Transport Forum OECD 2 rue Andre? 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