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_As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a 'forecasting by analogy' approach, it shows how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. Leading researchers and thinkers from disciplines as diverse as biology, anthropology, political science, and economics present a series of integrated case studies from around the globe to create a major work in this field._ _Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Fisheries_ _Edited by MICHAEL H. GLANTZ National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado_ _Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK_ _Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York_ _www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org 9780521414401_ _© Cambridge University Press 1992_ _No reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press._ _First published 1992 This digitally printed first paperback version 2005_ _Contents:_ _1 Introduction Michael H. Glantz_ _2 King Crab Dethroned Warren Wooster_ _3 The Rise and Fall of the California Sardine Empire Edward Ueber and Alex MacCall_ _4 El Nino and Variability in the Northeastern Pacific Salmon Fishery: Implications for Coping with Climate Change Kathleen A. Miller and David L. Fluharty_ _5 The US Gulf Shrimp Fishery Richard Condrey and Deborah Fuller_ _6 The Menhaden Fishery: Interactions of Climate, Industry, and Society Lucy E. Feingold_ _7 Maine Lobster Industry James M. Acheson_ _8 Human Responses to Weather-Induced Catastrophes in a West Mexican Fishery James R. McGoodwin_ _9 Irruption of Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes: Analogous Events to Those That May Follow Climate Warming Henry A. Regier and John L. Goodier_ _10 North Sea Herring Fluctuations R.S. Bailey and J.H. Steele_ _11 Atlanto-Scandian Herring: a Case Study Andrei S. Krovnin and Sergei N. Rodionov_ _12 Global Warming Impacts on Living Marine Resources: Anglo-Icelandic Cod Wars as an Analogy Michael H. Glantz_ _13 Adjustments of Polish Fisheries to Changes in the Environment Zdzislaw Russek_ _Page 15 31_ _49 89 121 147 167_ _185 213 231 261 291_ _14 Climate-Dependent Fluctuations in the Far Eastern Sardine Population and Their Impacts on Fisheries and Society Tsuyoshi Kawasaki_ _325_ _15 The Peru-Chile Eastern Pacific Fisheries and Climatic Oscillation Cesar N. Caviedes and Timothy J. Fik_ _355_ _16 Climate Change, the Indian Ocean Tuna Fishery, and Empiricism Gary D. Sharp_ _377_ _17 Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Fisheries: A Summary Michael H. Glantz and Lucy E. Feingold_ _417_ _Index_ _Introduction_ _MICHAEL H. GLANTZ_ Environmental and Societal Impacts Group National Center for Atmospheric Research* Boulder, CO 80307, USA _During the past decade there has been considerable speculation about the possible consequences of a global warming of the atmosphere for terrestrial ecosystems. One of the latest surveys of such impacts was undertaken by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at the request of the US Congress in its search for policy options with respect to the possible anthropogenically induced climate change (US EPA, 1989). While freshwater ecosystems and two estuarine ecosystems (Apalachicola Bay in Florida and San Francisco Bay in California, USA) were included in this recent EPA survey, marine ecosystems were not. A more recent assessment undertaken by Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1991) generated some speculation about possible climate change impacts on fish populations and on aquatic life._ _This volume addresses the potential implications for fisheries and societies of regional impacts of a global warming of the atmosphere. Fisheries case studies were selected to investigate responses to changes in their environment. While most of these changes related to biological factors (that is, changes in the abundance of a fish population), some case studies related to abiotic factors, focusing on changes in the availability of fish (that is, a loss of access to commercially exploited fish stocks because of unilateral extensions by nations of their fishing jurisdictions). This study began with the identification of fisheries around the world that have undergone changes in availability and abundance, with a preference for fisheries affected by such changes in the past few decades. Some cases are classic ones (e.g., the collapse and reappearance of the Far Eastern sardine). Each chapter provides general historical background of the fishery, problems or prospects faced as a result of natural or human-induced change in availability or abundance, and a set of possible lessons to societies that are directly or indirectly dependent on exploitation of specific living marine resources._ _Main Lobster_ _Great Lakes Sea Lamprey_ _Atlantic Menhaden_ _Icelandic Cod Wars Atlanto-Scandian Herring North Sea Herring_ _Polish Long-Distance Trawlers_ _Mexican Oysters_ _Indian Ocean Tuna_ _Pacific Northwest Salmon_ _Alaska King Crab_ _Pacific Sardine_ _Fig. 1.1 Location of fisheries case studies. Adapted from Athelstan Spilhaus, "Whole Ocean Map," cited in Cousteau, 1981._ _The approach taken is referred to as "forecasting by analogy." This is an attempt to forecast society's ability to respond to the consequences of yet-unknown environmental changes that might occur in the future, by looking at societal responses to recent environmental as well as societal (e.g., legal) changes. Some of these changes have been long-term, low grade and cumulative, while others have been short-term and abrupt. This method of "forecasting" regional responses to the regional impacts of global climate change on the abundance or availability of living marine resources has been used in the absence, at this time, of reliable computer-generated regional climate impacts scenarios about the next several decades._ _Many studies have already been undertaken on various aspects of the effects of anthropogenic and environmental factors on the viability of specific living marine resources under contemporary climatic conditions (e.g., Troadec, 1990). Clearly, a good base of information is available with which to begin an assessment of the possible regional and local implications of a global atmospheric warming of a few degrees Celsius, as projected by general circulation modeling output. There are also many researchers whose expertise would place them in a good position to address questions about the interrelationship between global changes and fisheries, once they become aware that their research is relevant to global climate change issues._ _It is important to note that forecasting by analogy is not an attempt to assess the direct effects of a climate change on the biological aspects of living marine resources. A few such research efforts have already been undertaken (e.g., Bakun, 1990; Bardach & Santerre, 1981; Frye, 1983; Sharp & Csirke, 1983; Shepherd et al., 1984; US Department of Energy (US DOE), 1985; Fisheries, 1990). Fish populations are influenced by many elements of their natural environments during all phases of their life cycles. Subtle changes in key environmental variables such as temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction, ocean currents, and strength of upwelling, as well as those affecting predator populations, can sharply alter the abundance, distribution, and availability of fish populations. Human activities can also affect the sustainability of these populations through, for example, the application of a variety of different management schemes or new technologies, each of which could have a different (either beneficial or adverse) consequence for the state of the fishery, years, if not decades, into the future._ _Figures 1.2a and 1.2b depict in a generalized way some of the complexities associated with the direct and indirect effects of climate on the marine environment and on the life stages of fish populations._ Ключевые слова: stock, indian ocean, development, san francisco, wildlife service, market, enso, international, san pedro, trace gas, marismas nacionales, water, regions oyster, species composition, strategic objective, european community, sharp, environment, ocean, science, york, dried shrimp, catch, harvest, major, autoregressive, tuna, scripps institution, pink chum, time, marine, regional, humboldt current, general assembly, temperature, smoked oyster, people, gill net, dummy variable, equatorial zone, recovered, south, lake, miller, number, landing, resource, ceylon bulletin, impact, condition, bering sea, nino, university, increase, fao, period, explanatory variable, great lakes, general public, north, total, rhode island, national, highly uneven, purse seiners, high, size, effort, ha, bargaining chip, mt, consumers acceptance, louisiana, shrimp, decided, ashizuri subpopulation, foreign affairs, fully recovered, plant, coast, eastern, coastal plain, archaeological reconnaissance, future, year, purse seining, sardine, freshwater discharge, delaware lewes, vesselsc troll, cod, uk wa, bulletin, event, report, motion, vessel, wa, fisheries, abundance, california, lamprey spends, global, nursery ground, scientific, indian, pond-raised shrimp, north carolina, anon, icelandic, hoc, pacific, lake huron, inch, percent, russian bogdanov, war, decline, ton, american, isolated community, early, large, collapse, climate-induced catastrophe, vancouver island, change, sea lamprey, press, economic, multispecies plants, environmental, coastal bangladesh, management, long, response, coastal, analogical reasoning, regier, eastern pacific, industry, saginaw bay, warming, upper lake, specie, salmon, fish, fisherman, fishery, empiricism gary, contingency planning, menhaden, purse seiner, fishing, population, northeastern pacific, lake erie, raw material, migratory route, human population, glantz, season, crab, human consumption, problem, lake trout, lakes huron, maine, military organization, washington, increased, expert consultation, production, georgian bay, biloxi mississippi, tertiary carnivore, southeastern pacific, sea, bay sound, main lake, atlantic, coastal zone, study, result, physiological ecology, san diego, anti-el nino, jan mayen, eventual solution, cultural stress, lobster, small, el nino, great, journal, blue whiting, gulf, spawning, rural population, trawlwire cutter, level, herring, el, drug administration, ground, area, commercial, northeastern atlantic, lakes, price, lamprey, iceland, uk, bay, endangered species, climate, region, societal responses, environmental stress, scientific proof