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"Forecast Verification: A Practitioners Guide in Atmospheric Science Edited by IAN T. JOLLIFFE University of Aberdeen and DAVID B. STEPHENSON University of Reading Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern G ate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone (44) 1243 779777 e-mail (for orders and customer service enquiries): cs-books@wiley.co.uk Visit our Home Page on www.wileyeurope.com or www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern G ate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, or emailed to permreq@wiley.co.uk, or faxed to (44) 1243 770620. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA Jossey-Bass, 989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741, USA Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH, Boschstr. 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2 Clementi Loop 02-01, Jin Xing District Park, Singapore 129809 John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd, 22 Worcester Road, Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada M9W 1L1 Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Forecast Verification: A Practitioners Guide in Atmospheric Science edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-471-49759-2 (alk. paper) 1. Weather forecasting—Statistical methods—Evaluation. I. Jolliffe, I.T. II. Stephenson, David B. QC996.5.F677 2003 551.63-dc21 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-471-49759-2 Typeset in 10.5/13pt Times New Roman by Kolam Information Services Pvt. Ltd, Pondicherry, India Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production." 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