Forecast Verification: A Practitioners Guide in Atmospheric Science
Ian T. Jolliffe & David B. Stephenson
Book 1 of Meteorology
Language: English
37.21.00=Meteorology 37.23.00=Climatology 38.59.00=Technique and technology of exploration works 39.03.00=Theoretical Geography Meteorology adbc alphabetical topics alse alarm analysis approach ason asymptotic distribution atmospheric science atmospheric scientist atrium southern base base rate based basic concepts bayes theorem bias binary binary events binary variable binormal brier buizza bull case categorical category chapter cience edited climate climatological clinical studies conditional conditionally unbiased confidence intervals contingency continuous continuous variables convective activity correct correct rejection correlation cost cost loss curve dash-dotted curve data day decision decision maker defined definition detection deterministic diagram difference discussed distribution doblas-r eye earth sciences eather economic edited ensemble ensemble forecast environmental science eof analysis equal error estimate evaluation event false alarm field finite size forecast forecast observation forecast probability forecast verification forecasting frequency function height field historical precedence int interval joint distribution jolliffe jones key concepts lead leading mode lepscat matrix lhomond linear error linear transformation log odds long loss loss ratio map typing marginal distribution measure medical diagnosis mer method model murphy mutually exclusive national centers noise alone noisy channel null distribution null hypothesis number observation observational error observed occurrence oklahoma city open diamond ordered series ovost paris cedex payoff matrix perfect perfectly discriminatory performance point posterior odds ppen practitioners guide precipitation prediction press prior odds probabilistic probabilistic forecast probability probability forecast problem quality range rate ratio references reliability resolution sample sampling distribution score scoring matrix second-order moment set signal detectability skill skill score spatial spatial autocorrelation spatial domain spatial field spatial fields spatial map standard deviation statistic statistical statistical inference statistics scotland stephenson stochastic transformation straight-line segment swets table tatist temperature term test theoretical distribution threshold time two-class error typing uncertainty underlying distribution unduly influenced urphy user variable variance varx verification vice versa von storch wavelet coefficient weather winkler
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"Forecast Verification: A Practitioners Guide in Atmospheric Science Edited by IAN T. JOLLIFFE University of Aberdeen and DAVID B. STEPHENSON University of Reading Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern G ate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone (44) 1243 779777 e-mail (for orders and customer service enquiries): cs-books@wiley.co.uk Visit our Home Page on www.wileyeurope.com or www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. 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Other Wiley Editorial Offices John Wiley & Sons Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA Jossey-Bass, 989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741, USA Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH, Boschstr. 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2 Clementi Loop 02-01, Jin Xing District Park, Singapore 129809 John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd, 22 Worcester Road, Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada M9W 1L1 Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Forecast Verification: A Practitioners Guide in Atmospheric Science edited by Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-471-49759-2 (alk. paper) 1. Weather forecasting—Statistical methods—Evaluation. I. Jolliffe, I.T. II. Stephenson, David B. QC996.5.F677 2003 551.63-dc21 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-471-49759-2 Typeset in 10.5/13pt Times New Roman by Kolam Information Services Pvt. Ltd, Pondicherry, India Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestry in which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production." 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